Kungani I-Tungsten Carbide ne-Cobalt Powder Yenyuka Ngenani Kulo nyaka?

I. I-Cobalt Powder Frenzy: Ukumisa Ukuthunyelwa Kwe-DRC + Ukushesha Kwamandla Okusha Kwezwe

1. I-DRC Yehlisa Amaphesenti angama-80 Okunikezwayo kwe-Global Cobalt

IDemocratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) iyahlinzekaI-78% ye-cobalt yomhlaba. NgoFebhuwari 2025, kungazelelwe kumemezele aI-4 - inyanga ye-cobalt eluhlaza ukumiswa kokuthekelisa ngaphandle, inciphisa ukunikezwa kwe-cobalt yomhlaba wonke ngama-26% (okulingana nokushoda kwenyanga kwamathani angama-30,000). Izincibilikisi zomhlaba wonke zibhekane “nenhlekelele yezinto ezingavuthiwe,” lapho amanani okusebenza ehla afika ku-58%. Amabhizinisi amancane - kuya - aphakathi nendawo aze avale, ephusha impushana ye-cobaltizintengo zikhuphuka ngo-¥3,500/ton ngenyanga eyodwa- ukweqa okukhulu kusukela ngo-2024.

2. Amandla Amasha kanye Nemikhiqizo Ye-3C Idala I-Cobalt Scramble, Ikhipha Amasheya

Ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kunyuke ngo-25% ngo-2025.amabhethri e-ternary lithium (ama-EVs) namabhethri e-cobalt - acid (amadivayisi we-3C)zibhebhezela isidingo se-cobalt, esenyuke sadlula amathani ayi-150,000. Kanye kwanele izinsuku ezingu-45, i-cobalt powder isitokwe manjeihlala izinsuku ezingama-28 kuphela- ukunikezwa - ukungalingani kwesidingo okungamanani ashajayo.

3. I-Hoarding kanye Nezinkontileka Zesikhathi Eside Dala Ukuvunguza Kwentengo

Ukuvinjelwa kokuthekelisa kwe-DRC kwavusa ukwethuka. Abahwebi bathole ngaphezu kuka-30% wezimpahla, okwenza amanani entengo akhuphuke ngo-12%. Ukuze ugweme ukushaqeka okuzayo, abenzi bebhethriusayine izinkontileka zesikhathi eside kusasele izinyanga ezi-3, okwenza amanani esikhathi eside abe ngaphezulu kuka-8% kunendawo. Lokhu kwakha umjikelezo:ukunyuka kwentengo → ukuqoqwa okwengeziwe → amanani aphakeme nakakhulu.

II. I-Tungsten Carbide Surge: Izimayini Eziqinile Zomhlaba Wonke + Imikhakha Ekhulayo Ekhulayo

1. I-Quota Cuts and Closures I-Cripple Tungsten Supply

Ngaphezulu kwamaphesenti angu-60 e-tungsten yomhlaba avela endaweni eyodwa engukhiye. Ngo-2025, izabelo zezimayini zokuqala zanqanyulwa ngo-6.45%, kwathi u-30% wezimayini ezincane zavalwa ngenxa yemithetho eqinile yezemvelo. Intengo ye-black tungsten concentrate (impahla eluhlaza)ishaye ¥172,000/ton(irekhodi eliphezulu). NgoJuni, amanani entengo ye-tungsten carbide powder enyuke kakhulu¥364/kg.

2. I-Photovoltaics, Defense, kanye neDrones Drive Explosive Demand

I-Tungsten carbide ayiseyona nje amathuluzi okusika!Izintambo ze-Photovoltaic tungsten (ezino>14% wokungena emhlabeni jikelele)ziyadlondlobala, njengoba amafemu ahamba phambili “imigqa yokukhiqiza amamitha ezigidigidi” esebenza ngokunganqamuki. Izimboni zezokuvikela (i-nuclear fusion) nezimboni ze-drone nazo zihlwitha i-tungsten carbide, ngale mikhakha emithathu.ibalwa ku-40% wesidingo esisha- ukuthulula izimakethe ngobusuku bonke.

3. Izilawuli Zokuthekelisa Zivusa I-Global Stockpiling Spree

I-tungsten enkulu - izizwe ezithumela ngaphandle zethula imithetho "eyodwa - imvume - ngokwe-oda". Ngokwesaba ukushoda, abathengi baphesheya kwezilwandleiqale ukuqoqwa ezinyangeni eziyisi-6 kusenesikhathi, icindezela amanani amazwe ngamazwe ngo-13% ngaphezu kwamazinga asekhaya. Ngo-Q1 2025, amanani okuthunyelwa kwe-tungsten carbide eqa ngamaphesenti angama-45, futhi ama-oda aphesheya enza ama-35% okuthengisa - isidingo sangaphandle sengeze uphethiloli owengeziwe emlilweni.

III. Ingabe Izintengo Zizoqhubeka Zikhuphuka? Kufanele Izinkampani Ziphendule Kanjani?

1. Okufushane - Isikhathi: Ukuguquguquka Okuphezulu Njengoba Izikhala Ziqhubeka

• I-Cobalt Powder: Ukuvinjelwa kokuthekelisa kwe-DRC kuzohlala kuze kube ngu-Q3 2025, kudala igebe lomhlaba wonke lamathani angama-32,000. Izintengo zizoshintsha phakathi¥260–¥280/kg.
• I-Tungsten Carbide powder: Ngegebe lempahla eluhlaza engu-15,000 kanye nenani eliphakeme lesidingo se-photovoltaic, amanani angase avivinye¥380/kg.

2. Isikhathi Eside - Isikhathi: Umjaho Phakathi Kokuthutha Nokusungula Izinto

• I-Cobalt: Amafemu ashintshela ukukhiqizwa e-Indonesia (nabadlali abaphambili asebevele bakha izitshalo). Ngo-2026, amandla amasha angadambisa izingcindezi zokuhlinzeka.
• I-Tungsten Carbide: Qaphelaamathuluzi okusika i-silicon carbide(sesivele singena esikhundleni se-20% ye-tungsten carbide). Izinkampani kufanele zijike ziye emikhiqizweni ephezulu (isb, i-nano - grade tungsten carbide, ekhuphula inzuzo ngo-50%).

3. Amasu Okusinda: Secure Supply + Thuthukisa Tech

• Isikhathi esifushane: Khiya izimpahla ngezinkontileka zesikhathi eside noma sebenzisa ikusasa ukuze uvikele ubungozi bentengo.
• Isikhati eside: Tshala imali ku-R & D ukuze uthole imikhiqizo ephezulu (isb., i-high - pure cobalt yama-semiconductors, i-tungsten ye-nuclear fusion). Sebenzisa ubuchwepheshe ukuze unqobe izingcindezi zezindleko.

Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo kuqhutshwa yiizinqubomgomo zesifunda, isidingo somhlaba wonke, nemidlalo yemali. Ezinkampanini emhlabeni wonke, impumelelo isho ukuqonda ukuthi "kungani ukunikezwa kuqinile" nokuthi "ubani othenga okwengeziwe" - bese kuba ukuthola amaketanga okuhlinzeka noma ukusheshisa ukusungula izinto ezintsha. Kungaleso sikhathi kuphela lapho bengakwazi khona ukuchuma kulesi siphepho sezinsiza.